An Ugly, Horrible Rumor

I'm having difficultly locating a reliable source to reference this topic, but rumors are flying all over the Interwebs that the US will attack Iran on April 6th. Many blogs cite a Russian newspaper as the source of the rumor. Right now my only reliable source is US News and World Report, but the article doesn't name April 6th (or any date) as the specific date for action.

Most blogs admit that the same rumor swirled at this time last year, but obviously didn't materialize. The key difference between this year and last is the removal of Admiral Fallon at Central Command Headquarters. Fallon, who vehemently protested any US involvement in Iran, once said that [an attack on Iran] "Will not happen on my watch." Fallon reportedly angered White House officials last fall when he repeatedly denied an attack on Iran was imminent, adding that Washington was "mulling in non-military operations instead."

According to some websites, the attack will apparently last 12 hours, and will take out suspected uranium enrichment facilities, ships, aircraft, and defense installations. The US attack will be launched from several points, from bomber aircraft in Diego Garcia to ships positioned in the Persian Gulf and beyond.

Equally puzzling are the reports coming out of Israel. Under the guise of better preparing their citizens for another conflict with Lebanon, the Israeli government is planning massive evacuation drills for April 6th.

Perhaps most disturbing is the speech made today by an old US "adversary," Muammar Gaddafi. Gaddaffi warned Arab leaders to unite or face the same fate as Saddam Hussein.

Maybe I'm a bit more squeamish than most when it comes to conflict and rumors of conflict, but given all this information, I think I am justified in wringing my hands. It's no secret that the Bush Administration has been scheming for a war with Iran ever since Dubya announced "Mission Accomplished" in Iraq in 2003. The topic is a reliable staple on talk radio, and I can only imagine what our *impartial* television news anchors are saying about the prospect of bombing Iran. Somewhere John McCain, Dick Cheney, Norman Podhoretz, Sean Hannity, et al. are finding their pants to be a bit tighter, particularly around in crotch. Warfare is the ultimate aphrodisiac for neocon blowhards.

The ramifications of any form of an attack on Iran are severe. The difference between Iraq and Iran is simple: Iran can defend herself. You see, the dirty little secret about the US military is that she much prefers to attack countries that are unable to defend themselves (see Bosnia, Iraq, Somalia, etc.) Iran threatens that precedent, and the country is well positioned not only to defend herself, but to launch an effective counter-strike as well. With just over 130,000 troops in Iraq, and the bulk of them located inside the tiny Green Zone and Camp Victory, a well-planned counter offensive by Iran could trap US forces in Iraq. Let's not forget that the majority of Iraq's citizens are Shiite Muslims, as is Iran.

Further, an effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iranian submarines and mines could seriously cripple the world economy, as approximately 40% of the world's oil passes through the tiny Strait. If you think Federal Reserve inflation-generated gas prices are high, wait until the effects of a legitimate supply shortage is felt throughout the world.

Still, I remain a little skeptical about the attack because there has been no "Gulf of Tonkin" incident to drum up widespread support for war. Although the news media has tried several times to drum up war support using reports of Iranian weapons shipments, the scare tactic resulted in little traction. There was also the designation of Iran's revolutionary guard as a terrorist organization, but that failed to whet the public's appetite for war as well. I just don't see any evidence of a weapons of mass destruction-esque "smoking gun" crisis such we were made to believe existed prior to the invasion of Iraq. Then again, when it comes to big warfare politics--and especially Cheney--anything is possible. Every fireworks show has a grand finale, right?
I hope the rumor mill is wrong about this one, as they were last year. There is no way the United States can (literally) afford a third major conflict in the Middle East, especially against a country the size of Alaska that is capable of defending herself. At this point, even a cursory bombing of selected targets inside Iran has the potential of unleashing deadly consequences upon American forces inside Iraq. The solution, as always, is to bring the troops home...immediately.